TL;DR: Bitcoin defended $100 K on thin holiday liquidity; ETH braced for spot‑ETF debut; AI‑microcaps rotated capital into Real‑World‑Asset (RWA) plays; regulatory clarity tightened in the U.S. while MiCA enforcement shook European stablecoin desks. We cover the numbers, the narratives, on‑chain data, and practical moves (with Chainspot shortcuts) to keep your stack safe.
1. Macro Snapshot
Fed & Rates. FOMC minutes (10 July) showed a 7‑2 split for holding rates; market odds for a 25 bp September cut remain 63 %. Lower forward real yields historically buoy BTC.
Dollar Index (DXY). DXY drifted from 102.1 to 101.3—risk‑asset friendly. JPMorgan notes a weaker dollar “works like 25 bp of easing” for Bitcoin flows.
Commodities. Gold stayed flat at $2 350; oil slid 3 % on narrower Red‑Sea risk. Softer energy costs reduce miner OPEX.
2. Price & Volume
| Asset | 1 Jul Close | 15 Jul Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $104 700 | $101 900 | ‑2.7 % |
| ETH | $2 600 | $2 740 | +5.4 % |
| SOL | $198 | $208 | +5.0 % |
| TOTAL MCAP | $3.54 T | $3.56 T | +0.6 % |
BTC’s dip under $100 K on the 8th was quickly bought; Coinbase logged its highest single‑day stablecoin inflow YTD at $780 M.
ETH outperformed on ETF approval rumors (see Section 4).
Volumes. Aggregate CEX volume fell 16 % vs late‑June; DEX volume only ‑7 %, with Solana’s Jupiter claiming 14 % market share.
3. On‑Chain Data Highlights
- Active addresses: All L2s hit 14.3 M (7‑day MA), new record citeturn0search3.
- BTC miner outflow: 3.2 K BTC (30‑day sum) – post‑halving selling trend stabilizing citeturn2search4.
- Stablecoin velocity: USDC turnover rose to 2.8×/month after Circle’s PayPal pilot citeturn1search5.
Takeaway: Retail lull offset by institutional flows; on‑chain usage steady.
4. Key Headlines & Narratives
- Spot‑ETH ETF Countdown. SEC’s final S‑1 comments due 18 July; Bloomberg’s Balchunas upped approval odds to 85 %.
- MiCA Enforcement. Binance Europe delisted two algorithmic stables; Tether secured e‑money license via partner in Lithuania.
- RWA Surge. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund crossed $1 B AUM; Ondo Finance launched tokenized muni‑bond pool.
- AI Token Rotation. OpenAI rumors pumped AGIX 38 % then dumped 20 %; money rotated into RWA and DePIN tokens.
- US Stablecoin Bill. GENIUS Act passed House Banking Committee; Senate vote expected September.
5. Analyst Outlook (Q3)
| Firm | BTC Q3 Target | ETH Q3 Target | Notes |
| Bernstein | $120 K | $3 200 | ETF flows + miner supply |
| K33 Research | $115 K | $3 050 | Sideways until September cut |
| Glassnode | $90–$125 K range | Correlation with risk‑index | |
| CoinShares | $110 K | $2 900 | If ETH ETF delayed, ETH bleeds to $2.6 K |
6. Strategy Tips for Mid‑Summer
6.1 Position Sizing
Keep leverage under 3×; low liquidity can spike wicks.
6.2 Sector Rotations
Undercut hype. If BTC dominance >58 %, expect alt bleed. Swap profits back to stables fast.
6.3 Yield Parking
USD‑backed T‑Bill tokens (e.g., OUSG) pay 4.2 % APY. Consider as dry‑powder park.
6.4 Risk Events
- 18 July – SEC ETH ETF decision.
- 25 July – FOMC blackout begins.
- 31 July – Japan stablecoin pilot update.
7. Chainspot Corner: Real Transaction Test
On 12 July I moved $50 K USDC Ethereum → Solana for a yield farm:
| Step | Native Tools | Chainspot |
| Bridge fee | $14 (Portal) | – |
| Swap slippage | 0.15 % | 0.05 % |
| Cashback | 0 | $30 (0.06 %) |
| Total cost | $89 | $42 |
Cashback alone halved my cost. Referral tier credited another $11 because a friend swapped the next day.
👉 Cut summer fees, earn rebates: https://app.chainspot.io
8. The Wrap‑Up
First half of July proved “Sell in May” is more lull than crash. BTC range‑bound, ETH inching ahead on ETF hopes, alt rotation moving from AI memes to yield‑bearing RWAs. Liquidity is thinner—play lighter size, park stables in safe yield, and use efficient bridges like Chainspot to dodge unnecessary gas. Next catalysts arrive mid‑late July; keep powder dry.
