Bi-Weekly Market Review: November 16–30, 2025 — What Happened & What to Watch Next

TL;DR: In the second half of November, crypto markets weathered heavy turbulence: Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from mid-$90Ks to ~$85 K, broad sell-offs wiped out leveraged positions, and capital rotated defensively. But beneath the chaos, structural dynamics shifted — stablecoin flows ebbed and sentiment cooled, yet pockets of relative strength emerged as consolidation set in toward month-end. This reset may set the stage for a cautious, liquidity-driven bounce in Q1 2026 — though only with disciplined risk management. Below I walk you through what moved, why, and possible scenarios for the coming months.

1. What Happened (Nov 16–30): Key Moves & Market Stressors

📉 Sharp correction across the board

• BTC slid from roughly $95-96 K down to ~$85 K, marking the worst post-October drawdown in months — a drop of around 10–15% in short order. nypost.com+2AP News+2

• Ethereum (ETH), along with major altcoins like Solana (SOL) and others, followed suit — ETH dipped below key psychological levels near $3,000, while SOL, Dogecoin and others fell ~8%. nypost.com+1

• Market-wide, November turned out to be one of the weakest months of 2025: BTC losing ~16–17% month-over-month, altcoins underperforming drastically — a blow to market sentiment broadly. nypost.com+2fnlondon.com+2

🧨 Leverage unwinds, ETF outflows, institutional pressure

• The sell-off wiped out nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions, mostly longs. That forced a cascade of liquidations. theaustralian.com.au+1

• Institutions with large BTC treasuries (notably Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy) came under pressure. They announced a $1.44 billion USD reserve to support dividends and debt obligations — a sign that their leveraged positions are feeling strain amid weakness. ft.com+2marketwatch.com+2

• Spot Bitcoin ETF products saw one of the largest withdrawal waves to date — roughly $3.7–$4 billion in November outflows have been reported, indicating significant institutional de-risking. fnlondon.com+1

⚠️ Market sentiment & broader risk-off

• The sell-off coincided with rising macroeconomic unease, uncertainty on rate paths, and risk-asset aversion — pushing crypto correlation tighter with equities and reducing risk appetite. theaustralian.com.au+2nypost.com+2

• Liquidity thinned, volatility spiked, and many retail/leveraged players got squeezed — a toxic mix for broad crypto risk assets.

• As a result, many traders and funds moved to safe-haven assets or cash/stablecoins, increasing market defensiveness.

🔄 Late-month stabilization & hints of consolidation

• Around November 27–30, BTC bounced modestly back toward $90–91.5 K, recovering some losses. TradingView+2The Economic Times+2

• The total market cap stabilized around ~$3.1–3.3T, reflecting that while heavy losses occurred, a full collapse was avoided. Binance+1

• Crypto markets entered a consolidation phase, with volatility lower than mid-November peak, suggesting a pause while participants reassess risk and positioning. The Economic Times+1

2. What Changed Fundamentally — Signals & Structural Shifts

📦 ETF-Era Realities Under Pressure

The steep BTC drop and ETF outflows show that institutional flows are no longer a one-way pump. When macro or risk-off sentiment rises, ETF-backed capital responds — and that can reverse quickly.
This dynamic weakens the “BTC as institutional gravity anchor” narrative and forces traders to re-evaluate risk definitions.

🔄 Perp Market & Leverage Risk Is More Real Than Ever

The scale of liquidations reveals how deeply leveraged much of the market remains — especially in perpetual derivatives. On-chain perps and high leverage amplify corrections, often turning modest macro stress into full-blown panics.
For traders, that means increased need for risk control, discipline, and hedging — or the high chance of wipeouts.

🧊 Market Breath: From Broad Risk to Narrow Defensive Bets

November’s correction consolidated liquidity into fewer assets. Large-cap BTC and maybe a handful of other defensive assets now hold more weight. Risk-on alts and speculative plays got hammered.
That suggests a tightening of market breadth — until a new catalyst appears.

3. What Worked — Relative Strength & Survivors

Despite the carnage, some themes showed resilience:

• BTC held up better than many expected, dropping less percentage-wise compared to some speculative alts. Its relative dominance increased.

• Insider buying at Strategy, via preferred stock, signalled that some investors still see long-term value — an indicator of confidence among deep insiders. barrons.com+1

• Late-month bounce and consolidation suggests that the worst may be over — or at least that selling pressure has eased. This could create a base for recovery or range-bound trading.

4. What to Watch Heading into Q1 2026 — Key Themes & Scenarios

Based on what’s happened and current structural shifts, here are what to watch for in the next few months.

🔎 Key Macro & Market Variables

1. ETF Flow Behavior
If flows resume — especially with renewed investor appetite — BTC could regain strength, carrying broader market liquidity. Conversely, additional outflows will continue pressuring risk assets.

2. Leverage & Perp Funding Cycles
We may see periodic spikes in perps open interest, followed by periods of deleveraging. Watch funding rates, open interest, and exchange flow data as leading indicators of volatility and rotation.

3. Stablecoin Supply & Exchange Inflow/Outflow
Stablecoin re-entry into exchanges could signal incoming liquidity. Conversely, if stablecoins stay idle, rotation may stall.

4. Macro & Global Risk Environment
Inflation, interest rate expectations, global equity volatility — any macro shock could trigger another deleveraging wave, hitting crypto hard.

5. Scenarios for Early-2026 — What Could Happen

6. What Traders & Investors Should Do Now — Tactical Advice

✅ For Long-Term Holders

• Use dips around $80–85 K as optional accumulation zones for BTC (if you believe in the long-term bull story).

• Avoid panic selling — volatility is normal in leverage-heavy environments.

• Diversify across stablecoins, spot coins, maybe low-leverage ETH exposure, to survive drawdowns.

🧠 For Active Traders & Tactical Players

• Watch perp-funding and open-interest data — they will foreshadow volatility swings.

• In consolidation phases, trade ranges; avoid over-leveraging.

• If a bounce begins, favor high-liquidity large-caps or low-leverage alts — avoid high-beta midcaps/memes until structure re-tests.

• Consider using cross-chain bridges and multi-chain routing to stay agile (especially with fragmented liquidity).

⚠️ Risk Management is Crucial

• Avoid double-leveraging (spot + perp)

• Keep position sizes small relative to volatility

• Hedge when open interest and funding get stretched

• Have clear exit/stop-loss plans — the next cycle reset could be fast

7. Why This Reset Matters — Bigger Picture for 2026

November’s drawdown and consolidation may feel painful, but it does something important: cleans the system.

• Over-leveraged speculative excess gets flushed.

• Volatility returns to normal ranges.

• Market participants recalibrate risk.

• Liquidity condenses around stronger hands and more resilient assets.

• Infrastructure (perps, ETFs, bridges, cross-chain rails) stabilizes — but with more discipline.

If 2026 becomes a “liquidity discipline” cycle rather than hype-driven mania — this reset may have been necessary.

We won’t see the frantic rallies of 2021 — but we might see more sustainable growth, selective alt-rotation, and institutional-level price discovery.

8. Potential Catalysts to Watch in Early 2026

• Renewed ETF inflows (or stabilization) — could stabilize BTC price.

• Stablecoin redeployment — signals rotation.

• Perp-market calm followed by controlled OI build — precursor to rally.

• Global macro easing (rate cuts, dovish central banks) — triggers risk-on flows.

• Major network upgrades / L2 infra launches — could restart alt cycles in a controlled way.

• Regulatory clarity (especially in US/EU) — supports institutional re-entry.

9. Conclusion — November Was Ugly, But That May Be Exactly What the Market Needed

The latter half of November 2025 was brutal. Price drawdowns, liquidation cascades, ETF outflows, and widespread fear.

But that turbulence cleared out the weakest hands, reduced systemic leverage, and forced a reset. Markets consolidated, structure firmed, and volatility cooled.

If liquidity returns — via ETFs, stablecoins, or macro tailwinds — the battered market may rebound in a healthier, more sustainable pattern.

For 2026, smart positioning, risk discipline, and structural awareness (perps behavior, liquidity flow, macro context) may outperform old-school “moonshot” chasing.

This bi-weekly isn’t just a recap — it’s a map for what comes next.