Bi-Weekly Crypto Roundup (Oct 16–31, 2025): From “Black Friday” Whiplash to a Fed Cut, ZEC’s Privacy Charge, and the ETF Chessboard

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TL;DR

• Macro set the tone: The Fed cut rates 25 bps on Oct 29–30 but signaled no autopilot for December. Risk assets whipsawed into month-end. AP News+2theguardian.com+2

• Bitcoin broke its “Uptober” streak: First negative October since 2018 after the Oct 10–11 liquidation cascade (>$19B notional). BTC finished the month lower, still well above early-month lows. Reuters

• Zcash stole the headlines: ZEC ripped triple-digits on a privacy rotation and project-level momentum, then cooled into profit-taking late month. coindesk.com+2Cointelegraph+2

• Market structure debate heated up: Hyperliquid’s Jeff Yan accused some CEXs of underreporting liquidations by up to 100×, reigniting the on-chain vs centralized transparency fight. theblock.co+1

• ETF regime change keeps brewing: The SEC’s generic listing standards (Sept 17) for spot-commodity ETPs continued to ripple through October; analysts flagged a faster lane for certain altcoin ETFs if issuers meet the new criteria. sec.gov+2dechert.com+2

1) Macro backdrop: a late-month Fed cut and “known unknowns”

The Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point cut at the Oct 29 FOMC, its second of 2025. Chair Jerome Powell stressed the path ahead isn’t pre-committed, citing data gaps from the government shutdown and mixed signals on growth vs. inflation. Equities wobbled on the press conference, and crypto tracked the risk-asset chop more than it did the rate headline. AP News+2theguardian.com+2

Elsewhere, markets eyed the APEC leaders’ meetings in South Korea (Oct 31–Nov 1). Pre-summit coverage focused on a prospective Trump–Xi sit-down and whether a tariff ceasefire could stabilize cross-asset volatility into November. koreajoongangdaily.joins.com+2NDTV Profit+2

So what? The combo of an easing Fed (cautiously) and a potential trade thaw is supportive if follow-through arrives. But month-end price action told you positioning—not policy—was still in charge.

2) Price action: Bitcoin’s first down October since 2018

After tagging a new ATH above $125k the first week of October, BTC suffered its worst two-day drawdown of the year during the Oct 10–11 shock and never fully recovered into month-end. On Oct 31, Reuters tallied a ~5% monthly decline—the first negative October since 2018—snapping the industry’s favorite seasonality meme. Investopedia+1

End-of-month roundups from mainstream finance desks echoed the same tone: volatile month, lower close, with investors digesting macro uncertainty despite the rate cut. Ether tracked a similar pattern, closing October down for the month even as YTD numbers stayed green. barrons.com

Two inflection points to mark:

• Oct 10–11 “Black Friday” deleveraging: >$19B liquidated industry-wide as tariffs headlines hit; BTC briefly traded near $105k–$110k depending on venue, before bouncing. Reuters+2The Economic Times+2

• Late-month Fed cut: supportive in theory, but Powell’s “no auto-cuts” stance capped risk appetite into the close. theguardian.com

3) The Oct 10–11 shock: what actually happened

The trigger was simple: new U.S. tariffs on China and talk of export controls on “critical software,” which smashed risk assets globally. In crypto, thin weekend liquidity + high leverage did the rest. CoinDesk and other outlets documented a record liquidation cascade (~$19–20B), while Bitwise’s team argued by mid-month there was no structural damage (no systemic failures, core plumbing held). coindesk.com+2coindesk.com+2

Microstructure notes:

• Bursty liquidations in seconds overwhelmed reporting and dashboards.

• Funding flipped hard across perps; basis collapsed and then normalized.

• Rotation afterward favored privacy tokens and a handful of idiosyncratic narratives (more below).

4) Narrative of the fortnight: privacy coins, led by ZEC

If you only looked at one alt chart in late October, it was Zcash (ZEC). CoinDesk’s Oct 22 “Markets Today” pegged ZEC at +460% month-over-month, outpacing majors while BTC/ETH crabbed. Cointelegraph’s rolling coverage earlier in the month called out technicals pointing to continuation targets even as “overbought” risk loomed. By Oct 28–29, profit-taking headlines appeared, including a –10% daily slip after a staggering run. coindesk.com+2Cointelegraph+2

Why it resonated:

• Sector rotation into privacy after the deleveraging—investors reached for narratives with asymmetric beta that weren’t pinned to ETF flows alone.

• ZEC-specific momentum: visible roadmap cadence and wallet UX work kept showing up in coverage and community channels through October (a rarity for “OG” privacy assets). coindesk.com

Reality check: parabolic months rarely end quietly. Late-month articles warned about overheated conditions and vulnerable funding—exactly when you reduce risk, size down, and switch to limit/RFQ execution. Reuters

5) Structure wars: Hyperliquid vs. the CEXs

A big talking point between Oct 13–20 was transparency. Hyperliquid co-founder Jeff Yan said some centralized exchanges underreport liquidation events by up to 100×, because they publish at most one liquidation per second even if thousands occur in that second—masking true stress during crashes. The Block and Cointelegraph both covered the claims, which kicked off a round of replies from CEX partisans and stoked the on-chain vs. centralized debate again. theblock.co+2TradingView+2

Why it matters:

• If you trade perps, your risk model depends on real liquidation dynamics. Under-reported or aggregated prints distort how you set stops, fund spreads, and maker/risk inventory.

• The flip side: fully on-chain order books (like Hyperliquid) broadcast stress and can bottleneck at L1/L2 throughput. Pick your poison—but price your transparency premium.

6) Policy thread that won’t quit: ETF plumbing & new listing rules

The SEC’s Sept 17 approval of generic listing standards for spot commodity ETPs (including crypto) meant that, if an ETP fits the template, an exchange can list without a bespoke 19b-4. October commentary from law firms and crypto media chewed on what that means: faster lanes for certain non-BTC/ETH products (where the underlying qualifies as a commodity and custody/liquidity boxes are ticked). Expect this narrative to stay live through Q4 and into 2026. sec.gov+2dechert.com+2

Why traders cared in late October: with BTC retreating and ETH range-bound, attention shifted to which alt assets might clear the new bars (liquidity, surveillance sharing, custody). Until filings convert to approvals, it’s story-driven positioning—i.e., volatility.

7) L1/L2 and ecosystem snapshots

• Bitcoin (macro coin): failed to reclaim early-October highs into month-end after the flash crash; funding stabilized but breadth stayed thin. Reuters flagged the first negative October since 2018. Reuters

• Ethereum: bled vs BTC for much of the fortnight; ETF chatter less catalytic than in spring; eyes on December macro. barrons.com

• Solana: sentiment toggled between ETF speculation headlines and risk-off tape; still among the more sensitive beta plays to macro rhetoric. finance.yahoo.com+1

• Privacy basket: ZEC way out-front; XMR lagged partly on venue/liquidity frictions that have lingered since 2024–25 delisting waves. coindesk.com+1

• Perps venues: OB-L1s and on-chain perps leaned into the “we stayed up, we showed our liquidations” marketing. Traders leaned maker where possible and kept leverage modest after Oct 10–11. theblock.co

8) What to watch into November

1. APEC optics: A Trump–Xi handshake and even a light tariff ceasefire would reduce headline risk; a snub would do the opposite. Reuters

2. Fedspeak drift: With a cut in the bag, every speech matters for December odds. Powell emphasized uncertainty; traders will fade extremes. AP News

3. ETF calendars: Expect more alt ETP chatter; be careful trading media headlines—read the actual filings and exchange notices. sec.gov

4. Derivatives posture: After the record wipeout, watch funding, OI, and basis—especially around U.S. data substitutes while the shutdown delays normal releases. coindesk.com

5. Privacy follow-through: ZEC will need real users + code cadence to sustain. Look for wallet releases and network-level updates, not just candles. coindesk.com

9) Practical playbook (so you keep what you make)

• Trade the market you have, not the one you wanted. Post-crash tapes reward limits/RFQ, not market-chasing.

• Reduce approval risk: set spend limits; revoke weekly if you’re hopping new dApps.

• Keep a gas buffer on two chains. Nothing worse than being stuck on the wrong side of a bridge delay.

• Track derivatives: funding flips + rising OI after a crash can precede squeeze fuel—both up and down. coindesk.com

• Compress your routing costs: when you need to move stables and gas to a new chain, combine steps. Swap + bridge in one flow and stack the cashback while you’re at it: https://app.chainspot.io

10) Data bites (10-second scan)

• BTC: new ATH >$125k on Oct 5 → month closed down ~5%; first red October since 2018. Investopedia+1

• Flash crash stats: >$19B liquidations; “worst single-day wipeout” language common across desks. coindesk.com+1

• Fed: 25 bps cut; no promise of another in Dec. AP News+1

• ZEC: +460% MoM at peak momentum on Oct 22; late-month –10% day as traders took profit. coindesk.com+1

• Structure debate: Hyperliquid vs CEX liquidation under-reporting claims (up to 100×). theblock.co

• ETFs: SEC generic standards shift process for spot-commodity ETPs; October analysis focused on altcoin prospects. sec.gov+1

11) Strategy corner for the next two weeks

• Position light, think fast. After a historic liquidation, the tape punishes late entries. Play maker, set brackets, and respect funding windows.

• Narratives to test, not chase: privacy (ZEC leader); perps OB (transparency premium); ETF watch (file-driven pops).

• Risk caps: explicit per-trade and per-venue limits; isolate custody from trading (vault vs hot).

• Documentation: keep a simple trade log—dates, tx hashes, PnL. It makes your risk cleaner and your taxes survivable.

• Execution hygiene: route cross-chain via Chainspot so your rotations don’t turn into a trail of 3 tabs and 50 bps of slippage. https://app.chainspot.io

12) Closing

These two weeks were about post-shock price discovery. A historic liquidation, a not-so-comforting Fed cut, and a privacy-coin rocket made October feel longer than it was. Into November, it’s all about follow-through: do we get a credible APEC thaw, do ETF calendars actually move the needle, and do narratives like ZEC’s convert into users, not just candles?

Trade what’s in front of you, write down your plan, and keep your basis points.
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