- 1 | Defining “Alt-Season” in Credible, Repeatable Terms
- 2 | Drivers We Actually Care About
- 2.1 Dominance Inflection
- 2.2 Stablecoin Velocity Spike
- 2.3 Macro Liquidity
- 3 | Sector-Specific Readiness
- 4 | Game Plan: Precise Signals to Watch
- 5 | Execution Checklist (Chainspot Edition)
- 6 | Scenarios Into Q4 2025
- 7 | Final Take
Bitcoin smashed a new high at $118 K in late July and still clings above $110 K. Ethereum inches higher on ETF optimism. Yet the vast sea of mid-caps and micro-caps—Solana majors aside—feels frozen. “When alts?” is the most-asked Telegram question of the month. This report marries hard on-chain data, legacy-market clues, and funding-rate quirks to answer it. Spoiler: a broad alt-season needs three sparks—dominance rollover, fresh stablecoin velocity, and a macro tail-wind—none are fully here yet, but two are warming fast. While you wait, we’ll show easy ways to rotate collateral with Chainspot so you’re ready the moment liquidity flips.
1 | Defining “Alt-Season” in Credible, Repeatable Terms
The meme says “alt-season” starts when your Uber bill is quoted in obscure tickers. We need metrics:
| Indicator | Threshold | 3-Year Avg | Today (25 Aug 25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) | <50 % | 54 % | 56.9 % |
| Alt-Season Index (BlockchainCenter) | ≥75 | 44 | 18 |
| ETH/BTC Ratio | >0.08 | 0.065 | 0.025 (= $2.9 K/$114 K) |
| Top-50 vs BTC YTD perf. | >+50 % delta | N/A | –22 % |
Alt-season historically prints only after BTC.D cracks then accelerates lower. The index sits at 18—deep winter. Good news: we have seen spring thaw quickly once dominance loses footing.
2 | Drivers We Actually Care About
2.1 Dominance Inflection
Past cycles:
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Mar 2017: BTC.D falls from 87 % → 60 % in six weeks → ICO mania.
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Jan 2021: BTC.D slips 68 % → 41 % → DeFi Summer.
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Oct 2023: mini-rotation as BTC ETF rumors pumped liquidity, but dominance snapped back after approval.
Trigger today? ETF demand still soaks BTC supply. Morgan Stanley reckons it absorbs 52 % of post-halving issuance. Until inflows slow, dominance stays sticky. Watch for sustained ≤55 % prints.
2.2 Stablecoin Velocity Spike
Stable velocity (turnover/market-cap) was >3× during DeFi Summer; sits 2.1× today. The new U.S. GENIUS Act should entice TradFi issuers—Circle already minted +4 B USDC since mid-July—expect velocity rebound by Q4.
2.3 Macro Liquidity
Fed cut odds for September are 70 %. A surprise dovish pivot floods risk trades; alt-season has never started in tightening mode. Keep an eye on DXY < 100 and U.S. 2-year yield < 4.2 %.
3 | Sector-Specific Readiness
| Sector | Breadth | Funding | On-Chain Use | Readiness (1–5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L2 Tokens | SOL, ARB strong, OP lag | Neutral / weak | Wallets ATH | 4 |
| AI / DePIN | Rotations; hype rallies fade | Shorts expensive | TVL low | 3 |
| RWA | Up-only flows into BUIDL, USDY | Positive | Corporates join | 3 |
| Meme-coins | Low vol | Funding cheap | Pure sleeve | 2 |
| Old DeFi Blue-chips | Bleeding vs BTC | Flat | Fees down | 1 |
Interpretation: expect a rolling alt-season led by L2 majors → spillover into AI/RWA small-caps rather than a 2017-style tide lifting all.
4 | Game Plan: Precise Signals to Watch
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BTC.D daily close < 55 %, falling 3 days straight.
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ETH/BTC close > 0.03.
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Aggregate stablecoin velocity > 2.5× on CoinMetrics.
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Alt-Season Index > 40 for two weeks.
We hit none yet, but #3 could trip first (USDC expansion). Keep alerts set.
5 | Execution Checklist (Chainspot Edition)
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Front-run gas: Hold SOL, ARB, OP on native chains ready to deploy.
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Bridge USDC cheap: ETH-mainnet → Solana via Chainspot one-click; our test on 20 Aug moved $20 k for $3.10 and earned $14 cashback.
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Stack referrals: Push your Chainspot link—25 % of friends’ fees stack while you wait for rotation.
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Stop-loss discipline: 1 % rule; summer liquidity still thin.
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Journal outcomes: Note each failed “mini-season” attempt, refine triggers.
👉 Swap & bridge in under a minute: https://app.chainspot.io
6 | Scenarios Into Q4 2025
| Scenario | Prob. | BTC | ETH | Top-50 Alts | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft-landing Cut | 35 % | $120 K | $3.5 K | +60 % avg | DXY < 100, dominance rolls ⇒ alt-season begins |
| Slow-grind Plateau | 40 % | $115 K | $3.1 K | +15 % | ETF inflows steady, no macro cut |
| Liquidity Shock | 15 % | $90 K | $2.4 K | –25 % | Hawkish Fed or geopolitics |
| Alt-Super-Cycle | 10 % | $110 K | $3 K | +150 % | Stable velocity + NFT/AI mania; low prob but huge beta |
Base-case: sideways BTC, selective alt pops (L2, RWA). Full-broad alt-season likely Q4 at earliest.
7 | Final Take
“When $ALTS?” depends on three levers: BTC dominance cracking, fresh dollars spinning fast, and easier macro. Two of three show flickers; July’s GENIUS Act already juices stable inflows. Keep powder ready on the chains where rotation historically starts (Solana, Arbitrum, Base). Use Chainspot to pay pennies, earn cashback, and pivot the minute the dominance chart bends. Alt-season loves to sprint; your fees shouldn’t slow you down.
