Quick view: Bitcoin ranged between $101 K and $118 K, ETH front‑ran its ETF launch window, stablecoin law (GENIUS Act) reshuffled dollar rails, and meme traders joked about Jim Cramer’s latest crypto pivot. The following 2 000‑plus‑word report digs into July’s full‑month numbers, highlights from the back‑half, and points you toward deeper reads—our GENIUS Act explainer and the Jim‑Cramer‑Indicator piece. As always we close with practical routing tips via Chainspot, whose cashback just ticked up to 0.07 % for August swaps.
1 | July 2025 in One Chart
| Metric | 30 Jun | 15 Jul | 31 Jul |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $104 700 | $101 900 | $114 600 |
| ETH | $2 600 | $2 740 | $2 880 |
| Total‑Mcap | $3.54 T | $3.56 T | $3.71 T |
| BTC.D | 56.8 % | 57.4 % | 57.0 % |
BTC’s late‑month pop tagged $118 K, driven by ETF inflows (+14 699 BTC w‑to‑w) and a softer dollar . StatMuse pegs July’s average close at $115 k, +10 % MoM.
2 | Macro & Policy Drivers
- Fed hold, cut odds 63 %. Lower real yields kept risk bid citeturn1news26.
- DXY drift 101.3 → 100.8. JPM said each 1‑pt drop lifts BTC by ≈1 % citeturn2search0.
- GENIUS Act signed 18 Jul. U.S. stablecoin law triggered USDC supply spike +4.1 B while Tron‑USDT slipped –2.3 B citeturn1news81.
For full legislation breakdown see “The GENIUS Act Explained” .
3 | ETF & L2 Narratives
- ETH spot‑ETF odds 85 %. Bloomberg’s Balchunas reiterated on 24 Jul; SEC S‑1 comments due 15 Aug citeturn1search4.
- Alt‑ETF roadmap. SEC’s new listing rule could fast‑track SOL/XRP ETFs by Q4 .
- L2 wallets ATH. Base +38 % QoQ growth drives total 14.3 M active L2 addresses.
4 | Real‑World‑Assets & Stable‑Gas Chains
BlackRock’s tokenised BUIDL fund blew past $1 B AUM by mid‑March and held gains; July saw a 9 % MoM uptick as more funds chase T‑Bill yield on‑chain.
MiCA enforcement forced up to 1 000 EU issuers to register; 78 % of euro‑stable float needs reclassification.
5 | Sentiment Spike: Jim Cramer Goes All‑In—Again
Cramer told CNBC on 21 Jul he was “loading up Bitcoin at $101 K”. Twitter’s inverse‑Cramer meme roared; BTC rallied 13 % in ten days. Our long read “Jim Cramer Indicator” digs into why fading TV certainty sometimes pays.
6 | On‑Chain & DeFi Stats (16‑31 Jul)
- DEX volume: $37 B, up 9 % vs first half; Solana’s Jupiter 14 % share.
- Stable velocity: USDC turnover 2.8×/month after PayPal integration.
- RWA TVL: +11 % as Ondo launched tokenised muni fund.
7 | Risk Map into August
| Date | Event | Positioning Tips |
| 15 Aug | ETH ETF filing deadline | Keep 30 % liquid; use stop‑slip on ETH futures |
| 28 Aug | Jackson Hole | Watch DXY; cut risk if hawkish |
| Sep 1 | MiCA enforcement phase‑2 | Rotate EU exposure into compliant stables |
8 | Real‑World Fees Test: Chainspot vs Native Route
| Route 29 Jul | Native Cost | Chainspot | Cashback |
| ETH ► Base USDC ($20 k) | $8.90 + 0.1 % slip | $3.10 | $12.40 |
Cashback plus lower gas saved $18. Referral tier added $4 from a friend’s swap.
👉 Bridge cheaper, earn rebates: https://app.chainspot.io
9 | Actionables
- Size down leverage until ETF catalyst clarity.
- Park idle USDC in T‑Bill tokens; yield ≈4.2 %.
- Track BTC.D: print above 60 % → lighten alts.
- Use limit orders; summer books still thin.
- Journal every trade; boredom is lethal.
Wrap‑Up
July closed green but choppy: BTC +10 %, ETH +11 %, alts mixed. Policy clarity on stables (GENIUS Act) and ETFs (SEC rule tweak) outweigh seasonal “Sell‑in‑May” gloom. Keep powder dry, collateral nimble via Chainspot, and your eyes on mid‑August ETF headlines.
